What matters this morning (ET)
- US index futures are modestly higher into the open after Tuesday’s cash-session selloff led by mega-cap tech/AI. (investing.com)
- AI/semicap earnings are driving dispersion: Teradyne is up sharply on a Q4 beat and strong Q1 guide; AMD is down despite a beat/guide raise, suggesting positioning/expectations were stretched. (investors.teradyne.com)
- Payments is a drag: PayPal is under pressure after its Q4/FY results release and related commentary, keeping a bid under “quality growth” vs. consumer/payment-exposed names. (newsroom.paypal-corp.com)
- Rates remain the key macro transmission: the 10Y (Feb 3 close) sits around the mid-4s; today’s ISM Services (10:00 ET) is the main macro catalyst. (federalreserve.gov)
- Dollar is softer pre-market; oil is higher; gold and bitcoin are volatile, keeping cross-asset risk signals mixed. (investing.com)
- Fed speak is on deck (Cook tonight), a potential late-day volatility source for rates-sensitive growth. (federalreserve.gov)
Pre-market table
| Section | Item | Latest | Move/Status | Interpretation | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Overview | S&P 500 (ES) futures (Mar) | 6,957.75 | +0.23% | Small rebound attempt after Tuesday’s risk-off tape; watch follow-through on earnings. | (investing.com) |
| Market Overview | Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures (Mar) | 25,486.50 | +0.14% | Tech stabilizes, but earnings-driven single-name gaps still dominate index direction. | (investing.com) |
| Market Overview | Russell 2000 (RTY) futures (Mar) | 2,662.90 | +0.23% | Small-caps tracking the broader bounce; sensitive to rates and domestic data. | (investing.com) |
| Rates & Dollar | US 10Y Treasury yield (last official close, Feb 3) | 4.29% | +3 bps vs Feb 2 (4.26%) | Higher yields keep pressure on long-duration growth; today’s ISM Services is the next rates catalyst. | (federalreserve.gov) |
| Rates & Dollar | DXY (ICE dollar index) | 97.23 | -0.07% | Softer dollar marginally eases financial conditions, but move is small. | (investing.com) |
| Commodities | WTI crude (front, derived) | 63.41 | +0.32% | Firmer oil adds a mild inflation impulse if sustained, but not yet a macro shock. | (investing.com) |
| Commodities | Gold (derived) | 4,686.66 | -1.23% | Pullback suggests reduced immediate hedging bid versus prior highs. | (investing.com) |
| Crypto | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | 78,065.6 | +0.45% | Crypto remains a high-beta risk barometer; stabilization helps sentiment at the margin. | (investing.com) |
| Notable Movers | TER | Unavailable | Pre-market: up big (direction confirmed) | Q4 beat and strong Q1 guidance is supporting semicap test/AI-exposure sentiment. | (investors.teradyne.com) |
| Notable Movers | AMD | Unavailable | Pre-market: down (direction confirmed) | Beat/raise was not enough to satisfy elevated AI expectations; read-through risk for semis. | (amd.com) |
| Notable Movers | PYPL | Unavailable | Pre-market/early tape: down (direction confirmed) | Weak guidance/CEO change headlines weigh on payments and consumer-fintech risk appetite. | (ft.com) |
| Notable Movers | WWD | Unavailable | Pre-market: up (direction confirmed) | Raised FY26 guidance supports aerospace/industrial momentum trade. | (woodward.com) |
| Earnings Today | PayPal call | 8:00 ET | Today | Real-time Q&A can add volatility to payments/fintech factor performance. | (newsroom.paypal-corp.com) |
| Earnings Today | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable: I did not verify a comprehensive “today’s earnings calendar” from a primary public schedule in time. | Unavailable |
| Macro / Policy Calendar | ISM Services (multiple subindexes) | 10:00 ET | Today | Biggest scheduled macro print for rates and cyclicals today. | (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com) |
| Macro / Policy Calendar | Treasury auction: 3Y note | 1:00 ET (auction time not verified; calendar shows date) | Today | Demand/stop-through can move front-end rates and bleed into equity multiples. | (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com) |
| Macro / Policy Calendar | Fed speaker: Gov. Lisa Cook | 6:30 ET | Today | Late-day policy tone risk for duration-sensitive equities. | (federalreserve.gov) |
| Analyst Actions | PLTR analyst actions | Unavailable | Upgrades mentioned; details not fully verified | Unavailable: upgrade/downgrade notes require a public broker note source; only secondary reporting seen. | (barrons.com) |
| Extraordinary International | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable: no verified China/ADR market-moving headline from approved free sources in the last 24h surfaced in this fetch window. | Unavailable |
Risks to today’s setup
- 10:00 ET ISM Services surprise could reprice rates quickly and whipsaw tech leadership. (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com)
- Earnings-gap contagion (AMD/TER/PYPL-type moves) can overwhelm index-level signals even if futures look calm. (amd.com)
- Late Fed communication risk (Cook 6:30 ET) into the close. (federalreserve.gov)
Data timestamp: 05:41 ET, Feb 4, 2026 (time fetched).