What matters this morning (ET)
- US index futures are modestly higher after Wednesday’s risk-on session, keeping the near-term tape sensitive to mega-cap/AI and late-cycle growth narratives. (bloomberg.com)
- Post-earnings dispersion is high: AXON is surging on a Q4 beat and strong FY26 outlook, while FSLR is sliding on soft 2026 sales guidance. (barrons.com)
- Today’s first macro catalyst hits at 8:30 AM ET with Q4 GDP (second estimate) and weekly jobless claims, setting the tone for rates and growth-sensitive equities. (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com)
- Treasury supply is in focus with a 7-year note auction scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com)
- USD is steady-to-firmer; if it extends, it can be a mild headwind for multinational earnings and commodity-linked risk. (investing.com)
Pre-market table
| Section | Item | Latest | Move/Status | Interpretation | Source(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Overview | S&P 500 (ES) futures (Mar) | 6,955.25 | +51.50 (since prior settle) | Modest bid suggests dip-buying persists, but direction likely hinges on 8:30 AM macro prints. | (bloomberg.com) |
| Market Overview | Nasdaq 100 (NQ) futures (Mar) | 25,353.75 | +325.00 | Tech leadership remains intact; earnings-driven single-name gaps can still dominate index tone. | (bloomberg.com) |
| Market Overview | Russell 2000 (RTY) futures | Unavailable | Unavailable | Small-cap tone cannot be verified from an allowed public dashboard in time. | Unavailable |
| Rates & Dollar | US 10Y yield | 4.049% | Flat (0.00%) | Stable yields reduce immediate duration pressure, keeping focus on growth/earnings catalysts. | (investing.com) |
| Rates & Dollar | DXY | 97.63 | ~flat | A steady USD is neutral; a renewed USD rally would tighten financial conditions at the margin. | (investing.com) |
| Commodities | WTI (CL) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Live WTI price not verified from a non-gated allowed source at this timestamp. | Unavailable |
| Commodities | Gold (GC) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Live gold price not verified from a non-gated allowed source at this timestamp. | Unavailable |
| Crypto | Bitcoin (BTC-USD) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Live BTC print not verified from a non-gated allowed source at this timestamp. | Unavailable |
| Notable Movers | AXON | N/A | Up sharply pre-mkt (~mid-teens to ~20%) | Q4 double-beat and stronger FY26 growth outlook reinforces “AI-enabled public safety” growth premium. | (barrons.com) |
| Notable Movers | FSLR | N/A | Down sharply (double-digits) | Soft 2026 sales guidance re-prices policy/tariff and demand uncertainty into solar complex. | (sec.gov) |
| Notable Movers | WDAY | N/A | Down pre-mkt (reported as ~high-single digits) | Even with solid revenue growth, guidance/positioning risk can pressure high-multiple software after results. | (investor.workday.com) |
| Earnings Today | INTU (after close) | Scheduled | AMC | A major software/consumer-fintech print that can move broader growth multiples after the bell. | (finance.yahoo.com) |
| Earnings Today | DELL (after close) | Scheduled | AMC | Read-through for enterprise spend and AI server demand can ripple across hardware semis and infrastructure. | (finance.yahoo.com) |
| Earnings Today | MNST (after close) | Scheduled | AMC | Consumer staples/discretionary sentiment check; margin commentary can matter for packaged beverage peers. | (finance.yahoo.com) |
| Macro / Policy Calendar | 8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (2nd estimate) + Jobless Claims | Scheduled | Today | The fastest path to a rates impulse: stronger growth/tighter labor tends to lift yields and pressure long-duration. | (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com) |
| Macro / Policy Calendar | 1:00 PM: US Treasury 7Y note auction | Scheduled | Today | Weak demand would likely steepen/raise intermediate yields, a near-term headwind for rate-sensitive equities. | (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com) |
| Analyst Actions | Key upgrades/downgrades | Unavailable | Unavailable | Could not verify a clean, public, non-gated roundup from allowed sources by 8:00 AM ET. | Unavailable |
| Extraordinary International | China ADR / major non-US risk headline | Unavailable | Unavailable | No extraordinary, market-moving China/ADR headline could be verified from allowed public sources in the last 24h window. | Unavailable |
Risks to today’s setup (ET)
- 8:30 AM ET macro surprise risk (GDP/claims) could quickly reprice the front end and hit long-duration tech. (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com)
- Auction tail risk (7Y at 1:00 PM ET) could push yields higher intraday and tighten equity financial conditions. (thomsoninvestmentgroup.com)
- Earnings gap risk remains elevated (post-close INTU/DELL/MNST), with index-level impact possible through tech/consumer weights. (finance.yahoo.com)
Data timestamp: 05:41 AM ET (Feb 26, 2026).